大行评级|摩根大通:维持泡泡玛特目标价340港元及“增持”评级

格隆汇
Jul 28, 2025

摩根大通发表研究报告,指近期与一家处于主导地位的玩具代工生产(OEM)供应商进行对话,以了解供应链,得出的结论为:因更多IP品牌将代工生产采购移出中国,导致当前代工生产供应短缺,也解释了泡泡玛特旗下Labubu及Crybaby公仔除需求强劲外,该两款产品持续缺货的原因。摩通表示,供应短缺一旦正常化,预期超级IP将拥有更强的议价能力(承担较少关税),意味未来利润率更佳。 摩通看好泡泡玛特主要因为:其强大的IP产品供应(价格亲民、创造情感与社交连结、IP成功推出与需求高度相关而非国内生产总值,Labubu正成为新兴“超级IP”);其全球扩张雄心与执行能力(2025年海外销售按年增长234%,2025至2027年复合年均增长率34%,预计2027年贡献67%销售额)。 摩根大通预测泡泡玛特2024至2027年销售、盈利复合年均增长率分别为52%、66%,净利润率达32%,净资产收益率在2027年达到45%,因其受到强大IP、开店、生产力提升、品类扩张及利润率扩大推动。摩通维持予泡泡玛特目标价340港元,相当于预测2026年市盈率34倍,评级“增持”。

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