智通财经APP获悉，安联投资全球固定收益首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger表示，尽管面对政治压力要求即时减息，美联储预计在7月的议息会议后将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%至4.5%，连续第五次按兵不动。
Krautzberger称，现时的经济增长与通胀环境，为美联储采取观望及保持耐性提供了空间。然而，来自特朗普政府及部分美联储理事的减息压力正日益升温。自6月议息会议以来，关税引发之通胀压力开始浮现，美国消费需求持续放缓。不过，宽松的财政条件某程度舒缓了美国经济的下行风险。
安联投资认为，美联储有望在7月议息会议上维持审慎立场，继续观察关税措施对经济活动及通胀的实际影响。短期利率市场亦大致持相同看法，对7月减息的预期仍然偏低。展望7月会议之后，市场目前仅预期年内减息两次，安联投资认为未来数周公布的通胀数据将成为关键变数。但若消费需求及劳动市场疲弱程度超出预期，至9月美联储会议前，来自政治层面的减息压力或将显著升温。
从投资策略角度而言，安联投资认为，当前的宏观经济与政策环境有利于部署美国票息曲线陡峭化的投资。在货币市场方面，美元正面临结构性阻力，进一步强化该行做空美元兑一篮子货币的信心。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.