金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示，全球半导体增长明确。WSTS最新预测2025/2026年市场规模或将达7,009/7,607亿美元，同比增长11%/9%，集成电路领域受益于逻辑电路与存储器增长，增速分别达13%/9%。存储器供需趋紧尤为突出，DRAM因原厂停产中低阶产品及消费旺季来临，该机构预计3Q25价格环比上涨10%-15%；NAND Flash受AI服务器需求拉动，3Q25价格或环比上涨5%-10%。同时，该机构预计晶圆代工与封测产能利用率维持高位，车规级芯片需求旺盛，工业级芯片产品需求出现改善。该机构认为，2025年下半年生成式AI技术有望深化渗透，行业供给竞争格局改善及国产替代加速推进，有望共同构筑半导体及元器件行业成长动能；行情端，该机构预计结构性机会是主导，重点推荐偏左侧周期向上板块，以及AI应用落地、AI硬件驱动较强的板块。
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