金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，国内软饮料百亿单品大多诞生于2014年前的增量红利时代，2014年后行业增速放缓、同质化竞争加剧，产品生命周期缩短，大单品难觅。在此背景下，该机构认为中国软饮行业正处于存量破局的关键阶段，而消费群体与需求偏好的变迁带来产业新变局，健康化、功能化新趋势下新兴细分赛道表现出较强的增长势能，彰显出孕育新百亿大单品的潜力。本文基于对软饮料行业消费新趋势的梳理，重点探讨了新趋势下如何把握产业机遇，结合行业竞争要素，该机构认为短期来看，25年行业成本红利有望延续，预计龙头企业的利润波动相对可控。中长期维度下，行业增长逻辑已从“量增驱动”转向“结构升级”，唯有兼具产品创新能力与渠道精耕能力的企业方能持续突围。该机构认为，当前市场对软饮料行业的新消费趋势认知仍不充分，产业之变育新机。消费者对健康、个性化和场景化需求的提升，正推动软饮料行业向“功能+情感+价值”三位一体的方向发展。这一趋势下，能够精准捕捉需求分层、把握功能属性、重构性价比逻辑的企业，将有望在产业变革中抢占先机，打开新的增长空间。结合产业之变，该机构综合研判认为新趋势下无糖茶饮/养生水/气泡水/碳酸茶/能量饮料赛道成长性更强，推荐综合实力突出的软饮料龙头企业。
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