金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，近日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电站项目（以下简称“雅下项目”）开工和煤炭行业限制超产等政策助力下“反内卷”主线逐渐形成，背后是政策力度和市场认知的进一步深化：其一，此前部分投资者担忧本轮“反内卷”缺乏需求侧政策配合，雅下项目落地提供了积极信号，下半年信用和库存周期拐点渐次出现、ROE企稳回升的能见度进一步上升；其二，本轮“反内卷”政策已完成政策定调和顶层设计，从行业自律到限制超产等行政措施，更多核心行业配套政策有望出台，推动“反内卷”进入“深水区”。大势上，从去年“924”的“政策底”，到今年春节前DeepSeek的“产业底”，再到4月的“关税底”，当前“反内卷”或促进“价格底”的形成。雅下项目等积极信号的出现，使得下半年信用周期回升、产能周期出清、ROE企稳回升的能见度进一步上升，中国资产的广谱型估值修复仍在演绎。配置上，对于交易型资金而言，强主题驱动阶段或进入尾声，但随着“反内卷”逐渐成为主线，中期行情仍有空间。关注三条择线思路：1）资金视角，配置型资金偏好的低估值、低筹码、高分红品种，如建材、煤炭、化学原料、化学制品等；2）胜率视角，产能有自然出清迹象的风电、普钢、农化制品、民爆等；3）赔率视角，受益于“反内卷”，且估值和筹码已较充分计入悲观预期的光伏等，但注意短期交易拥挤度问题。
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