在要求美联储重启降息的政治压力日益加剧之际,主席鲍威尔已在监管着美国自2022年初开始加息以来最宽松的金融状况。诚然,关于美联储下一步行动的复杂争论涉及诸多议题,包括关税对通胀的潜在影响、移民限制对薪资和就业增长的作用、高抵押贷款利率以及高昂的政府融资成本。美联储自身模型显示,相对于长期中性利率水平,当前政策仍略偏“限制性”——主要原因是通胀仍高于目标、失业率接近历史低点,且实际经济增长已从一季度...
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