巴克莱银行经济学家及外汇策略团队维持基准预测，认为亚洲主要新兴市场央行将进一步推进货币政策宽松，但其基调更趋谨慎：宽松节奏将较此前预期更为温和，且决策层对美联储贸易政策走向保持观望态度。

　　该行指出，鉴于韩国存在提前行动的可能，预计韩国央行将在2024年10月实施首次降息，2026年2月再降息一次。随着通胀逐步缓和，印度储备银行可能在今年第四季度追加25个基点的降息。菲律宾央行预计在8月降息25个基点后暂停操作。泰国央行可能于今年8月及第四季度重启降息进程。

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