据报道，欧盟与美国正接近达成包含15%欧盟商品关税的贸易协议，该进展为美元注入谨慎乐观情绪，推动美元指数周五微涨0.1%至97.503，结束此前触及两周半低位97.109的颓势。作为反制措施，欧盟已批准价值200亿欧元的关税报复计划，若双方未能在8月1日最终期限前达成协议将立即生效。

　　尽管本周美国与日本达成农产品关税减免协议，但市场对两个经济体间关税战持续的忧虑持续发酵。货币交易员指出，在关键截止日前的政策真空期内，汇率市场仍将维持高波动状态。叠加白宫与美联储的罕见公开交锋，多重政策风险令美元反弹动能受限。

　　周四特朗普总统与美联储主席鲍威尔就央行总部翻修成本发生争执，这已是本月内白宫第二次公开质疑美联储决策独立性。分析人士警告，行政当局持续施压货币政策制定机构的做法，可能削弱美元作为全球储备货币的公信力。彭博数据显示，当前市场对7月降息50个基点的预期概率仍维持在48%高位。

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