摩根大通发表研究报告指,汇丰控股与渣打都将于7月底公布第二季业绩,目前预测由于渣打的净利息收入占比约52%,对比汇控为约60%,相信受到利率下行的冲击较小,加上香港商业地产风险敞口也较少,资产质量压力相对较轻,因此预期渣打的增长表现会较强韧,同予“增持”评级。 摩通预测汇丰第二季净利息收入将按季下跌1%至105亿美元,净息差轻微下降,财富管理收入预料按年增长16%,外汇业务表现强劲,预期该行信贷亏损拨备率将由首季的37个基点提升至50个基点,预期投资者会较关注其成本节省进度与对香港地产风险的应对方法。 至于渣打,摩通预计其次季净利息收入将按季跌2%至27亿美元,净息差降至205基点,但贷款增长受益于全球贸易提早出货效应所推动,非利息收入预料按年增长13%(但因季节性而按季减少9%),财富管理收入预期也保持按年22%的增长(首季26%),期待管理层对全年净利息收入更新指引。
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