高盛集团首席经济学家安德鲁·伯克（Andrew Boak）指出，与历史宽松周期相比，澳大利亚联储（RBA）当前的降息步伐显得尤为缓慢且力度温和。据其分析，以往周期通常在15个月内累计降息约215个基点，而本轮周期预计仅会在13个月内降息125个基点。

　　伯克认为，本轮减息需求趋弱源于经济领域的特殊性。资产价格相对坚挺的现状已通过财富效应传导渠道为经济提供支撑，因此需依靠降息手段提振需求的程度或有所降低。

　　不过，这位经济学家强调，政策天平仍倾向进一步宽松。当前经济前景的不确定性，尤其是通胀回落速度与就业市场韧性之间的角力，意味着未来实际降息幅度仍存超预期可能。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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