The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Service Corporation International (NYSE:SCI) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 76% over five years, which is below the market return. Meanwhile, the last twelve months saw the share price rise 1.6%.
Although Service Corporation International has shed US$518m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over half a decade, Service Corporation International managed to grow its earnings per share at 13% a year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 12% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Service Corporation International the TSR over the last 5 years was 90%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Service Corporation International shareholders are up 3.2% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 14% per year for five years. Maybe the share price is just taking a breather while the business executes on its growth strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Service Corporation International you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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