大和发表研究报告指,新东方今年5月底止第四财季收入及盈利分别超出市场预期4%与63%,但2026财年首季及全年度收入增长指引均低于预期。管理层解释,26财年首季将受高基数影响,当中涉及K9与高中春季课程时间表问题,以及东方甄选主播于去年离职导致收入贡献流失。另外,公司宣布为期三年的股东回报计划,承诺将不低于50%净利润透过股息与回购回报股东,但该行认为规模不及预期。 假设公司派发2025财年公认会计准则盈利的50%,2026年回报股东的金额约为1.86亿美元,以现市值计仅相当于2.6%股息率。该行将2026至27年收入预测下调3%至7%,每股盈利预测下调3%至5%。基于估值吸引,重申“买入”评级,目标价由49港元下调至43港元。
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