智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，预计覆盖的内银股在2025年上半年收入下降幅度将有所减少，预计同比下降0.1%。原因包括上半年净息差压缩幅度较小;交易收益压力减轻，因10年期中国国债收益率在2025年第二季度末降至1.65%。与此相符，盈利压力可能会依次减轻，2025年上半年预计盈利同比持平，相较于首季盈利同比下降1.3%有所改善。
该行认为，2025年第二季超预期的宏观经济条件可能会激励银行维持逆周期拨备做法，以保留更大的盈利缓冲，并为2025年下半年预计的更多拨备释放留出空间。在大型国有银行中，该行认为农业银行(01288)及交通银行(03328)可能在2025年第二季度继续实现快于同行的盈利增长;工商银行(01398)、浦发银行(600000.SH)、北京银行(601169.SH)可能报告超出预期的2025年第二季度业绩，并估计招商银行(03968)可能低于预期。常熟银行(601128.SH)可能宣布高于预期的20%-25%的派息比率。
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