金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指,理想汽车(02015)i8正式上市,3款配置售价32.18/34.98/36.98万元,Pro版和Max版售价与L8同版本的指导价相同,Ultra版较L8Ultra版便宜1万元。该机构认为i8具备MPV空间、轿车舒适等优势,有望凭借更好的座椅舒适性和车辆通过性,跨市场竞争MPV(如抢丰田赛那等燃油MPV市场份额)。该机构指,i8首次搭载公司自研MindVLA架构,VLA提升场景理解和泛化能力。端到端本质是机械模仿人类开车,VLA是强化学习,通过理解思维和记忆,归纳反馈后学会新知识。公司率先搭载VLA模型,有望巩固辅助驾驶第一梯队的领先地位。长续航(670/720km)和快补能(标配5C电池)是i8的优势,充足的超充站保证用户好的补能体验。该机构认为,在“10分钟充电生活圈”的构建与拓展下,超充网络的不断布局有望解决纯电汽车用户的续航和补能焦虑,为后续i系列矩阵扩容打开销量的天花板。该机构维持此前预测,预计公司25-27年GAAP归母净利分别103/158/178亿元,NonGAAP净利润130/186/208亿元。选取吉利汽车、比亚迪股份和赛力斯为可比公司,可比公司平均2025E17xPE,考虑到公司的VLA上车进展更快,超充网络布局更完善(可进一步支持双能矩阵发展),给予公司4x溢价,维持给予25年21xPE,2025ENonGaap净利润130亿元,考虑到汇率波动,微调目标价为139.49港币(前值140.34港币),维持“买入”评级。
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