贝莱德智库主管Jean Boivin表示,美国联储局通过强调经济增长及劳动市场的下行风险,明确表达了政策宽松倾向,同时表明其基本假设是关税对通胀的影响属于暂时性。是次会议有两名联储局委员对维持利率决定持反对立场——这是自1993年以来首次出现——他们倾向于降息。然而,该行认为,市场对降息的预期难以实现,实际上市场对联储局未承诺9月降息感到失望,这也使市场对2026年底前五次降息的预期受到质疑。联储局主席鲍威尔明确表示,关税将推高通胀,联储局已在其评估中将核心通胀率上调0.3至0.4个百分点。在劳动市场方面,联储局宽松倾向的核心理由是其认为劳动需求正随着移民劳动供给的减少而减弱。该行认为,若就业增长未充分放缓以匹配美国劳动力的降温趋势,可能引发联储局意外“转鹰”。这是该行将密切关注的焦点,特别是周五(8月1日)发布的美国就业数据。(ad/da)
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