育儿补贴政策落地提振需求 乳制品板块高开 中国飞鹤(06186)涨5.12%

金吾财讯
Jul 29, 2025

金吾财讯 | 乳制品板块高开,中国飞鹤(06186)涨5.12%,优然牧业(09858)涨4.95%,澳优(01717)涨4.08%,现代牧业(01117)涨2.42%,蒙牛乳业(02319)涨1.07%。7月28日,中办、国办印发《育儿补贴制度实施方案》,明确对3周岁以下婴幼儿按每孩每年3600元标准发放补贴。这一国家级政策的落地,标志着生育补贴从“地方试点探索”升级为全国性制度安排,整体体现“民生为大、务实可行”的政策导向。具体来看,一是覆盖范围全面扩大。政策将3周岁以下婴幼儿全部纳入补贴范围,年补贴总量约千亿元,由中央财政保障。二是后续差异化地方补贴值得期待。方案赋予了财政实力强、人口流入多的省份更大自主权,鼓励其结合本地需求额外增加补贴。中信证券表示,婴配粉作为婴幼儿的必需消费品,将直接和生育需求政策强绑定,若生育补贴政策有效提振生育需求,则直接利好婴配粉行业需求增长。此外,青少年是奶酪和液奶消费主力军,若生育补贴政策提升生育需求,则未来几年青少年群体数量有望受益新生儿数量增加而增长,间接利好奶酪和液奶需求增长。同时下游乳制品需求若较好增长,有助于上游原奶行业供需改善。因此生育补贴政策对乳制品需求利好最为直接。乳制品板块目前处于基本面和历史估值底部,生育补贴政策有望改善板块未来基本面预期,提振板块表现。

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