摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊(Michael Wilson)相信,在蓝筹盈利及宏观趋势向好的支持下,标普500指数到明年中有机会升至7200点,即较目前有12.5%上升空间。威尔逊在证券分析报告内称,标指7200点是较乐观的预测,主要因为预料标指成分股每股总盈利达到319美元,并把预期市盈率订为22.5倍,因此得出标指上望目标。标指成分股公布的季绩显示,企业盈利增长有稳定基础,平均增幅预料在10%至20%的中间水平。 他形容,目前的股市周期属于非传统周期,主要是受到营运杠杆比率正面、人工智能(AI)应用、美元汇价弱、税款节省、收入增长良好、需求持续上升,以及联储局将展开减息等因素支持。他有信心标指将趋于符合上述乐观预测,建议趁低吸纳优质股。至于个别行业,威尔逊维持原先看法,相信工业股将是本次升市的最受惠者之一。
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