金吾财讯 | 招证国际表示，美日关税协议超出市场预期，核心条款显著缓解贸易摩擦担忧但执行细节存在分歧。关税协议落地推动日本资本市场显著反弹，但钢铁铝业仍面临高关税压力。美国企业资本支出意外下滑，贸易和政策不确定性抑制投资意愿。关税政策波动和立法不确定性持续困扰企业长期投资规划，小企业受冲击尤为明显。该机构指，美股当前获得三方面积极因素支撑：已披露财报的标普500企业中82%业绩超出预期、贸易关税磋商取得阶段性成果以及市场对美联储政策转向预期增强。然而风险因素仍存：市场估值接近历史峰值，投资者现金配置跌破3.9%安全边际，超九成基金经理看好经济软着陆，权益资产超配比例高达20%。在美联储未大幅提前放松政策的情况下，市场整体性机会趋于有限，建议聚焦具备行业高景气、利率敏感性较低且盈利增长有扎实基本面的个股机会。
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