高盛发表报告,预估友邦保险第二季新业务价值(VONB)按实质利率(AER)计按年增长16%,高于第一季的13%;上半年净自由盈余生成预计按年增长9%,相较2024年全年的2%有所提升。该行预计友邦2025财年不会进行额外股份回购。投资者应关注以下推动新业务价值及自由盈余增长的关键因素:内地(剔除经济假设变动影响)及新设区域的实质增长;香港市场的销售动能;净自由盈余增长的驱动因素,包括营运差异及资本效率改善情况。 该行微调友邦2025至2027年盈利预测(幅度介于0%至-1%),以反映投资市场最新动向、汇率变动及销售动能,并将估值方法从贴现现金流模型调整为市盈率估值法。该行将12个月目标价由90港元下调至83港元,维持“买入”评级。
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