MW Comcast could see its heaviest internet subscriber losses ever. Then what?

By Emily Bary

A Bernstein analyst says Comcast executives will need to address their efforts to stabilize the broadband subscriber base and whether these are showing initial success

Charter Communications Inc. shares suffered their worst drop on record last week in the face of continued declines in the company's internet subscriber base. Soon it will be Comcast Corp.'s turn to report on its broadband performance, and expectations are low.

Consensus projections for Comcast's (CMCSA) internet subscriber numbers have "deteriorated," according to Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon. Analysts tracked by FactSet expect about 235,000 residential broadband net losses for the second quarter. Yoon saw another consensus figure at 240,000 and said that would mark the worst quarter in the company's history on that metric.

Whether Comcast meets or beats expectations with Thursday's broadband numbers, "it's not pretty," he wrote.

See more: Charter's Spectrum is bleeding subscribers - and the stock had its worst day ever

Comcast is a complex business housing theme parks, streaming, studios and more. But because broadband is responsible for the "bulk" of Comcast's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - and is set to make up an even larger portion once the company spins off some cable networks later this year - Yoon said the company "needs to clear" the broadband hurdle before investor attention can focus elsewhere.

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Comcast shares seem to already be reflecting the gloomy trends, Yoon noted, as they trade at 5.6 times Ebitda estimates for next year. "That said, several key questions must be addressed during the earnings call," he wrote. "Otherwise, what looks 'cheap' could get even cheaper."

Yoon is looking for the company, which operates the Xfinity brand, to discuss the "multi-year effort to rebase and stabilize its customer base," and whether there are initial signs that this is working.

He's also wondering about the financial impact of various efforts, like the push for more mobile subscribers and the trend around convergence, through which telecommunications companies try to get more customers for more than one connectivity offering. The thinking is that these could hit growth in Ebitda and average revenue per user over the short run, but Yoon will be looking to see if management has a different view.

Finally, he's interested in Comcast's estimates for tax savings from the new legislation and how the company will put that money to work.

Cable operators Comcast and Charter (CHTR) have been under pressure in recent years as wireless companies step up their efforts around fixed-wireless access, an option that lets customers get broadband service through the same network that gives them mobile service. Wireless players have also been making heavier investments into their fiber networks.

While Yoon noted that the overall broadband market in the U.S. looks to be stagnant - when you factor in subscriber gains for the wireless players and losses expected for the cable operators - he also flagged one potentially worrying trend. Third-party data indicates that home sales and residential mobility rates were down more in the first half of this year than in the comparable period of 2024, he said, noting that people moving homes is "historically a key driver of broadband new connects."

-Emily Bary

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July 29, 2025 13:21 ET (17:21 GMT)

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