智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，更新对中国石油化工股份(00386)的盈利预测及目标价，反映调整后的假设，并将2025年每股盈利预测下调15%，目标价由5.3港元下调至5.2港元。该行预计中石化2025年第二季净利润按季下降逾40%至约80亿元人民币，主要因炼化业务和市场库存损失，以及勘探与开采表现疲弱。尽管如此，随着原油价格趋于稳定及核心炼油毛利小幅改善，第三季业绩预计将出现反弹。
花旗认为，中国反内卷政策难以显著改善化工品价差，因亚洲行业产能利用率仍处低位且需求增长放缓。中石化持续推动资产升级(淘汰并重建小型裂解装置)，以及优化产品结构(降低炼厂开工率、将柴油转产航空煤油、提高合成橡胶等高利润下游产品产量)，或可缓解下游毛利进一步下滑的压力。虽然在中国油气股中，花旗仍更偏好中国石油股份(00857)作为首选标的，但中石化约6%的稳健股息收益率及潜在股份回购可提供一定支撑。
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