美国非农数据今晚公布,结果对美联储 9 月利息决议有较大影响

链捕手
01 Aug

ChainCatcher 消息,美国将于北京时间周五晚上 8 点 30 分发布的 7 月就业报告,预计将显示新增 11 万个就业岗位,较 6 月的 14.7 万个显著下滑;失业率预计将从 4.1% 微升至 4.2%;平均时薪月率预计将上升 0.3%,高于 6 月份的 0.2%。如果预测准确,这将强化就业市场放缓的观点,尽管未必需要美联储做出回应。

在本周早些时候的议息会议上,鲍威尔未就 9 月利率决议给出指引,并指出在那之前有很多数据要公布,周五的 7 月非农报告将是有助于影响美联储 9 月份降息预期的一块拼图。分析指出,若非农就业数据低于 10 万,且失业率上升,可能暗示就业市场走弱,打压美联储重燃的鹰派预期,并令美元承压,这种情况将有利于金价反弹。然而,如果非农就业数据出人意料地超过 15 万,美元的强势可能延续,因强劲的美国就业数据可能会排除美联储今年两次降息的可能性。(金十)

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