More Self-Driving Controversy Isn't Bad For Tesla. It's Bad For Everyone

Dow Jones
Aug 04

Self-driving technology is supposed to usher in an era of safer streets, cleaner air, and less urban congestion. That's the goal anyway. Lawyers, however, might have a different vision of the future.

Friday, a Miami jury ordered $329 million in damages for a fatal 2019 crash involving Tesla's Autopilot driver assistance product. Tesla argued that the driver was speeding, with his foot on the accelerator pedal, which overrides the Autopilot features, while looking for his phone. Still, the jury found that Tesla was 33% responsible for the crash, blaming the driver for the rest.

"Today's verdict is wrong and only works to set back automotive safety and jeopardize Tesla's and the entire industry's efforts to develop and implement life-saving technology," a Tesla spokesperson said. CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will appeal. Future Fund Active ETF cofounder Gary Black agrees. It's a setback for the industry, he says.

Carl Tobias, Williams chair at the University of Richmond School of Law, said that because a jury was involved in this case, the decision would be difficult to overturn.

Tesla's total bill for this case could be roughly $170 million. That is a large settlement, but not that significant given the company's near-one trillion dollar market value.

Investors seemed to brush off the decision. Tesla stock dropped 1.8% on Friday, but the S&P 500 dropped 1.6% as tariffs and weak job numbers weighed on most stocks. Ford Motor and General Motors stocks fell 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Waymo parent Alphabet shares dropped 1.4%.

None of those moves is out of the ordinary, relative to the market. To be sure, the verdict is an overhang for Tesla and for other auto makers and tech companies.

The plan for Tesla, Waymo, and others is to drive the cost of AI-trained taxis low enough that households don't have to own two cars, or any cars at all. Fewer cars, operating more hours of the day, would mean less pollution, congestion, and ultimately fewer accidents.

Waymo completes more than 250,000 self-driving cab rides each week. Its safety statistics indicate it is roughly 80% to 90% better than human drivers.

What's more, ride-hailing is a better business than building cars, according to investors. Uber Technologies is valued at about $180 billion. That's more than GM, Ford, and Chrysler parent Stellantis combined.

Wall Street pegs the opportunity for AI-trained ride-hailing services in the trillions of dollars. For many bullish Wall Street analysts, self-driving technology accounts for up to 75% of Tesla's valuation.

Waymo's statistics still mean that accidents do happen. How they are treated in the courts will influence the ultimate cost of the service and how the technology can diffuse across America. Tesla launched its self-driving robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June. Musk wants Tesla robotaxis to be available to roughly half the U.S. population by the end of 2025.

At a minimum, investors should pay attention to the appeals process. Tesla's Autopilot isn't its highest level driver assistance feature. All of Tesla's driver assistance features, like almost all offerings from all other auto makers, require drivers to pay attention 100% of the time.

Coming into Monday trading, Tesla stock was 25% year to date and up 46% over the past 12 months. Shares dropped 4.3% this past week. The trial was one factor. The market, down 2.4%, was another.

EV competition may have influenced investors as well. Chinese EV makers posted strong growth in July as Tesla sales in China dipped in the second quarter. Ford, which reported second-quarter earnings this past week, also said it would unveil more EV technology on Aug. 11 in Kentucky.

"That will be a big day for all of us at Ford," said CEO Jim Farley. "This is a Model T moment for us at Ford, a chance to bring a new family of vehicles to the world that offer incredible technology, efficiency, space, and features."

The Tesla Model 3 has been likened to the Model T for EVs. Tesla investors will have to watch what Ford unveils. There is never a shortage of things to care about when investing in a Musk-led company.

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