金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，鑫椤锂电发布锂电产业链8月预排产，样本企业中电池排产110.3GWh，环比+1.5%，正极13.5万吨，环比+2.6%，负极13.3万吨，环比+2.3%，隔膜15.1亿平，环比+4.2%，电解液7.8万吨，环比+2.0%，整体环比提升，主要系国内商用车电动化渗透率提升带来需求持续增长，国内大储需求向好，锂电产业链行业景气度持续向上，反内卷大基调下，该机构预计电池及材料环节后续降价空间有限，与碳酸锂相关的正极材料和6F价格有望率先反弹，叠加旺季下产能利用率提升，该机构看好锂电材料环节Q3盈利改善。需求方面，25年以来国内新能源乘用车销量向好，商用车电动化渗透率提升速度快，贡献重要增量，欧洲新能源车今年销量有望维持同比20%以上增长，国内储能盈利模式逐步完善，各地出台“136号文”承接政策，后续需求向好，欧美大储装机保持较高增长。供给方面，电池及材料环节新增产能释放已显著放缓，该机构预计锂电产业链各环节产能利用率或持续提升，反内卷环境下，电池及材料环节盈利能力有望持续改善，实现量利齐升。
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