瑞银发表研究报告指,将恒生银行评级由“中性”降至“沽售”,目标价由112港元下调至102港元。瑞银指,恒生上半年净利润按年大跌34.6%,信用成本创新高,导致业绩逊于瑞银及市场预期。管理层在业绩会议中维持审慎态度,指引下半年预期信用损失(ECL)将与上半年相若,意味2025全年信用成本可能超过100个基点。 考虑到香港商业地产的风险敞口为恒生带来的拨备压力,将2025至26年每股盈利预测下调12至18%,并预期即使派息比率可能提升至90%以上,2025年每股股息仍难维持稳定,料2025年股息为6.2港元,而去年为6.8港元。另外,瑞银指30亿港元股份回购计划符合预期,若明年贷款需求持续疲弱,可能会扩大回购规模。
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