智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发表报告指，7月31日，美联储7月FOMC会议一致决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.5%不变，这也是连续第五次会议按下减息“暂停键”，符合市场及该行预期。
鲍威尔淡化9月减息预期，同时直言尚未对9月会议做任何决定，也打击了市场此前普遍预期9月减息的热情。会议后，9月减息概率从会前的约65%下减至45%左右，全年减息预期也有所回落。
在当前时点看减息前景，美联储的等待是合理的，关税影响具有滞后性，现时尚未完全显现，可能还要等待未来两个月的通胀数据，比如商品价格压力的传导，9月会议前将获得两轮完整的就业和通胀数据可以观察。
基准情形下，美元信用风险，尤其是资本市场的走势已成为特朗普的“软肋”，可能限制其关税以及解雇鲍威尔的主张。预计至2025年底，全年减息在1-2次，而首次减息可能在第四季度。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.