金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，上周国家邮政局与快递运营商的座谈会，加上发改委在新闻发报会中提出修改价格法的意见，以响应政府高层推进“反内卷”的意愿，该机构认为这些举措将在未来3-6个月内成为快递行业的利好催化剂。该机构预计未来包裹单票售价将出现上涨，但预计上涨势头将不及2022年政府干预后强劲，主要由于快递运营商目前的盈利能力(以毛利率计算)高于2021年。尽管如此，该机构认为温和上涨足以扭转市场预期(即持续的下行趋势)，从而可能推动行业反弹。中通快递(02057 / ZTO US，买入)的2025年预测市盈率为14倍(而历史平均市盈率为22倍)，该机构认为具有吸引力。
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