2025年8月6日,早盘开盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。焦煤涨超3%,尿素、多晶硅、焦炭、沪银涨超1%,菜粕涨近1%。跌幅方面,SC原油跌超1%,鸡蛋、碳酸锂、铁矿石、国际铜跌近1%。
光大期货:
数据方面,美国6月贸易帐录得-602亿美元,为2023年9月以来最小逆差。美国7月标普全球服务业PMI终值 55.7,预期55.2,前值55.2。
降息方面,美国总统表示许多美联储主席候选人非常优秀,可能很快宣布新的美联储主席,我喜欢贝森特,但他想留在财政部。最新CME“美联储观察”数据显示,9月维持利率不变的概率为7.6%,降息25个基点的概率为92.4%,到10月维持利率不变的概率为2.7%,累计降息25个基点的概率为38%,累计降息50个基点的概率为59.2%。
综合而言,目前市场认为美联储九月降息25基点概率已超90%,降息预期不断得以强化,为黄金价格偏强运行提供助力,关注今日多名美联储官员讲话内容。
责任编辑:赵思远
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