金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，认为当前煤炭行业已经摆脱了“现金流压力下的囚徒困境”：1）供给侧改革后央国企成为行业主导（TOP50中央国企占比约85%份额）；2）2021-2024年盈利大幅度改善，行业负债率快速下降，基本已无偿债压力；3）政府具备技术监管手段及产能限制政策（安监局要求产能利用率不能超过110%），共同促进煤炭行业供给格局大幅度改善，已经“不一样”。从2025年4月港口价格跌破650元/吨，全国出现大范围大规模的产量下降，就是印证了经济学原理“经济性导致的企业自发减产”行为。供需走出底部，国家能源局发声煤炭“反内卷”。该机构认为2025Q1暖冬天气因素导致的总量需求不及预期已经过去，随着全社会用电总量的快速恢复，5月开始电煤需求已经开始恢复1%以上的增长，同时结合新能源的“430、531”新政，在新能源装机总量见顶背景下，2025H1或成为未来3-5年需求压力最大的时刻。而近期国家能源局发声煤炭行业“反内卷”，同时650元/吨价格下给予市场的现实盈利压力倒逼产量，结合进口煤的确定性减量，总供给有望呈现稳中有降的局面，供需基本面底部或已现。
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