中金发表报告指,预期猫眼娱乐(1896.HK)或于8月中下旬发布上半年业绩,预计收入25.02亿元人民币(下同),按年增长15.3%,净利润1.65亿元,按年下降42.4%,Non-IFRS净利润2.19亿元,按年下降37.8%,低于市场预期,主因主投影片票房不及预期,而毛利率低于预期。电影票务业务收入或增12%,现场娱乐票务收入受费率影响或按年持平。部分自制影片或有亏损,对利润产生拖累。暑期档主发多部影片,关注后续储备影片弹性。考虑电影行业供给波动性,该行下调2025年含服务费票房大盘11%至490亿元;及主投影片不及预期,综上,下调今明两年Non-IFRS净利润预测33.5%及14.4%,至4.62亿与6.87亿元。维持“跑赢行业”评级,因电影行业2025年票房波动较大,切换至2026年Non-IFRS市盈率15倍,下调目标价17.6%至8.4港元。
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