金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，25年7月，我国重卡市场批发销售约8.3万辆，同比+42%，环比-15%，月销量实现连续4个月份的正增长，且同比增速呈现持续扩大趋势（+7%→14%→37%→42%），表现超出市场预期。25年1-7月重卡累计销量62万辆，同比+11%，全年增长基调明确。该机构认为其核心原因是“以旧换新”效果加速显现，带动内需强势增长。展望未来，该机构认为在政策刺激和雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工等多重利好下，Q3淡季不淡。综合考虑到H2更强的行业β，该机构上调25年重卡销量预期由102万至105万辆。综合考虑到重卡基本面向上（总量和结构性增长）及未来“政策+工程”的强催化，该机构看好行业龙头企业受益此轮景气度向上，释放更强利润弹性。
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