智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，信义能源(03868)电价下降超预期，短期限电风险加大，公司股价近期大涨后已接近目标价，认为在不确定性较多的情况下估值吸引力有限，下调至“中性”评级。同时将2025-2027年盈利预测下调6%、7%及9%，由于市场整体估值提升，将估值基准由9.5倍市盈率提高至10倍，并由2025年切换至2026年，目标价由1.17港元上调至1.28港元。
报告指，公司上半年收入/盈利同比增7.7%/23.4%。售电量增长22.7%，由于光照较强，利用小时增长超3%，限电率则提高约10个百分点至14%-15%。 由于新收购项目电价较低和市场交易电价下降，含税平均电价下降12%至0.55元/千瓦时，低于该行预期。该行预计由于电价全面市场化将压缩新建项目收益率，公司未来收购速度将明显放缓。
报告指，上半年全国光伏发电利用率同比下降3个百分点至94%，但由于136号文和分布式光伏新政导致的抢装，内地光伏新增装机高达212吉瓦，同比大增107%。尽管抢装结束后装机将放缓，但预计并网容量激增仍将导致短期内光伏限电风险加大。
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