根据CME 数据,市场对美联储9 月会议降息25bp 的概率在8 月1 日非农数据发布后,从前一日的37%跃升至80%以上。有望拉动美国地产及地产后周期行业复苏,我们持续推荐出口链方向。市场高度预期美联储9 月降息。1)7 月非农就业数据大幅下修:25年7月非农新增就业仅7.3万人,远低于预期的10.9万人;且5月和6月数据被大幅下修,合计减少25.8 万人,直接触发“萨姆规则”的衰退预警信号。2...
Source Link根据CME 数据,市场对美联储9 月会议降息25bp 的概率在8 月1 日非农数据发布后,从前一日的37%跃升至80%以上。有望拉动美国地产及地产后周期行业复苏,我们持续推荐出口链方向。市场高度预期美联储9 月降息。1)7 月非农就业数据大幅下修:25年7月非农新增就业仅7.3万人,远低于预期的10.9万人;且5月和6月数据被大幅下修,合计减少25.8 万人,直接触发“萨姆规则”的衰退预警信号。2...
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