智通财经APP获悉,富达国际基金经理Rick Patel表示,近期市场波动、地缘政治、贸易消息等使部分投资者质疑美国国债的避险地位。尽管穆迪近期下调美国信贷评级、美国财政赤字规模庞大,以及海外投资者对美国国债需求等疑虑,这些担忧似乎被过度放大。Rick Patel称,穆迪强调美国从经济规模、韧性与活力,以及美元作为全球储备货币的角色来看,美国仍具卓越的信贷优势。美国市场的规模、流动性与强度无可比拟及无法取代,预期美国国债与信用资产仍将是全球投资者的重要配置。
至于财政赤字,虽然未来几年约7%的赤字预测感到忧虑,但这约7%的赤字可分为国债利息支出与约财政支出约各半。随着美联储可能展开减息行动,利息支出将下降,赤字规模亦将缩小,从而减轻债市对债务与GDP比率的担忧。关注美国经济是否转弱反而更重要,因财政空间已大幅缩小,政府的财政支援将远不如以往危机时期。
Rick Patel称,受惠于美国国内的财富结构,美国国债未来需求仍具韧性。美国家庭的股票配置比例远高于全球其他地区,表示美国投资者仍有大量空间可转向固定收益资产。若美国家庭将1%的资产转向固定收益,便足以支撑未来2至3年的国债发行。
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