美元美债遭遇“信任崩盘”双杀 瑞银警告美元年内8%跌幅仍未结束

智通财经
Aug 07

智通财经APP获悉,瑞银集团策略师警告,美国劳动力市场疲软及美联储与劳工统计局人事变动,可能引发美元与美债同步下跌。

瑞银投资银行策略师周三指出,市场尚未充分消化上周五系列事件的冲击——从显示招聘放缓的非农就业报告,到美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒突然辞职。

该行策略师Vassili Serebriakov、Shahab Jalinoos、Alvise Marino与Benjamin Jarrett联合撰文称,"这些进展标志着自春季以来,利空美元的传统宏观因素与风险溢价要素首次同时显现。"

他们表示,在美国经济显露放缓迹象之际,政治压力对政府机构独立性的侵蚀正引发日益强烈的担忧。7月非农数据不及预期且前两月数值下修,促使市场押注美联储将在后续会议降息。

就业数据引发前总统特朗普激烈反应,其罢免劳工统计局局长并多次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔拒绝降息。

策略师写道,"美国经济数据质量与可信度遭质疑,对持有美债资产及完全暴露于美元风险的投资者绝非吉兆。"

他们表示,彭博美元现货指数今年已下跌 8%,并可能因风险进一步下跌,同时补充称,欧元和日元等货币有望上涨。

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