摘要 关税税率明显上升，为何美国通胀没有反弹？ 年初至今，美国平均关税税率已经由2.3%大幅升至18.4%，美国通胀却维持低位，市场普遍预期关税只会导致温和通胀或暂时性通胀，甚至怀疑关税不会导致明显通胀。我们认为市场定价可能低估美国通胀反弹风险。有3个关键因素，延缓了关税驱动的通胀传导。一旦这些因素发生变化，美国通胀反弹可能“虽迟终至”： 1）统计方法缺陷，低估近月通胀。美国通胀具有较强季节性，...
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