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Aug 5 - By Nidhi C Sai, Editor Online Production, with global Reuters staff

Trump's trade punches on India appear to be heavy. A sweeping 25% tariff on key exports from the nation and a threat to "substantially" raise it over its Russian oil purchases look set to upend months of negotiations and squeeze labour-intensive sectors in the world's fifth-largest economy.

While those moves are making some Indian companies ponder their future, U.S. firms are unlikely to blink. From Apple AAPL.O to Google, big names are doubling down on India and betting on its long-term promise despite the rising geopolitical heat. That's our focus this week.

We also detail how a Chinese missile, an intelligence lapse, and a surprise strike helped Pakistan shoot down a Rafale fighter jet, marking one of the most dramatic air battles in years. Scroll down for more on that.

THIS WEEK IN ASIA

** South Korea, US prepare for summit with details of trade deal unresolved

** China's independent oil firms elbow into Iraq's majors-dominated market

** Japan ready to compile extra budget to cushion US tariff blow, PM Ishiba says

** China's solar giants quietly shed a third of their workforces last year

** Old trees and ageing farmers worsen outlook for top palm oil exporters

KICKED IN THE TEETH BY US TARIFFS

India is bracing for fresh pain on trade as U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on a wide range of its goods, treating Asia's third-largest economy more harshly than other major U.S. partners.

And in a move that India said was unjustified, Trump threatened to raise tariffs again over its purchase of oil from Russia.

The tariff imposition is expected to ripple through India's export engine. High-employment sectors, especially readymade garments, gems, jewellery, electronics and marine products, face steep duties in their crucial U.S. market.

"While further trade talks may bring the tariff rate down, it appears unlikely that India will secure a significantly better outcome than its eastern neighbours," said Priyanka Kishore, an economist at Asia Decoded.

Economists warn of a near-term hit to India's growth and sentiment. The rupee weakened after last week's announcement, and some analysts expect up to 40 basis points shaved off GDP in the year to March 2026 if the tariffs stay.

"If these tariffs remain in place, they could undermine India's growing appeal to businesses seeking trade diversion in low-value-added manufacturing sectors," said Raphael Luescher, Co-Head of EM equities at Vontobel.

India's $45.7 billion trade surplus with the U.S., which is equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2024, has been a major source of resilience amid global slowdowns. Halving that, some analysts say, could dent the 'safe haven' narrative that's helped India attract global capital even as China cools.

The most immediate pain is in workforce-heavy sectors. Apparel exporters such as Welspun Living WLSP.NS, Gokaldas Exports GOKL.NS, and Indo Count ICNT.NS, who send up to 70% of their output to the U.S., have warned of potential order losses and delayed expansion. Diamond and jewellery firms too are forecasting a slump in shipments ahead of the vital holiday season. The U.S. is India's largest market for garments and jewellery, with nearly $22 billion in exports in 2024.

"A blanket tariff of this magnitude will inflate costs, delay shipments, distort pricing, and place immense pressure on every part of the value chain, from lower-level worker to large manufacturers," said Kirit Bhansali, chair of the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council.

The Indian government, under pressure to protect farmers ahead of elections in a key state, has refused to concede on agricultural access - a major U.S. demand. That has stalled trade talks despite months of backchannel engagement. In Parliament, trade minister Piyush Goyal said India remains committed to "protecting and promoting the welfare" of its farmers and entrepreneurs.

US FIRMS LIKELY TO STAY THE COURSE

Even as Trump's latest tariffs threaten to disrupt India's China-plus-one ambitions, U.S. corporate confidence in the country is expected to remain firm, driven by its vast consumer market and limited manufacturing and investment ties to Beijing.

Apple has become more reliant than ever on India to feed its U.S. supply chain. Nearly all of Foxconn's 2317.TW $3.2 billion worth of iPhones exported from India between March and May went to the U.S. Between April and June, 71% of iPhones sold in the U.S. were India-made, up from just 31% a year ago.

"Making supply chain adjustments, particularly with new iPhone models nearing release, is unlikely due to the complex factors involved," said Tarun Pathak of Counterpoint Research. "It is expected to be business as usual."

Apple is not alone. Alphabet's GOOGL.O Google is investing $6 billion in Andhra Pradesh to build Asia's largest data center by capacity, including $2 billion in renewable energy. Drugmaker Amgen's AMGN.O CEO said in February the company will invest about $200 million in an AI-driven innovation hub in southern India, and Tesla TSLA.O launched its Model Y SUV in Mumbai just last month, despite import tariffs in India that can exceed 100% on cars.

U.S. retailer Costco COST.O is also joining the fray, with plans to open its first Global Capability Centre in Hyderabad, focused on technology and research operations that will initially employ 1,000 people and scale up.

India's growing local component ecosystem, wage levels around half of China's, and federal incentives make it more cost-competitive than ever, especially in tech and electronics manufacturing. In sectors such as pharmaceuticals and chemicals, exposure to the U.S. remains high, but players are already seeking workarounds or shifting supply chains to protect earnings.

In this standoff, short-term pain may sting India, but long-term positioning is still in play. Talks are expected to resume in mid-August, and while a quick breakthrough may not materialise, analysts say the fundamentals of India's economic story remain intact.

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Can India shield its politically sensitive farm sector and stop its Russian oil purchases while keeping its trade ties with Washington from unravelling? Or will economic pragmatism force a compromise in the face of Trump's tariff shock? Write to me at nidhi.csai@thomsonreuters.com.

THE WEEK'S MUST READ

A Chinese-made missile and an intelligence lapse helped Pakistan shoot down a Rafale fighter jet during a major India-Pakistan aerial clash in May, officials said. The Pakistani J-10C fired a PL-15 missile from around 200 km (124.3 miles), farther than Indian pilots had expected, after Delhi underestimated the missile's true range. The hour-long battle, involving about 110 aircraft, followed Indian strikes on Pakistan after a deadly militant attack in Indian Kashmir.

Pakistan used a "kill chain" linking Chinese jets, radar, and surveillance planes to track Indian aircraft without detection.

The incident raised doubts over Western fighter jets' dominance and boosted interest in Chinese alternatives like the J-10.

Dive into this insight by Reuters journalists Saeed Shah and Shivam Patel on how Pakistan brought down India's top fighter jet with Chinese tech.

MARKET MATTERS

Indian banks are tightening consumer lending just as rate cuts kick in, raising fears that cautious credit and weak household finances could dampen a consumption-led recovery.

Lenders are slowing disbursals for personal loans, credit cards, and vehicle financing. Growth in these segments slipped to single-digit percentage in May, from between 15% and 26% a year earlier, Reserve Bank of India data showed.

Top privately owned banks such as HDFC Bank HDBK.NS, ICICI Bank ICBK.NS, Axis Bank AXBK.NS, and Kotak Mahindra Bank KTKM.NS as well as large non-bank lender Bajaj Finance BJFN.NS have seen bad loans rise in the April-June quarter, hitting their bottom lines.

Read this in-depth report by Reuters journalists Jaspreet Kalra and Ashwin Manikandan.

(Reporting by Nidhi C Sai; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

((Nidhi.CSai@thomsonreuters.com; +91 70456 55251))