花旗集团经济学家法拉兹·赛义德表示，澳大利亚央行周二料将官方现金利率下调25个基点至3.6%，政策声明的整体基调或将呈现“中性偏鸽”态势。

　　“货币政策声明中对2026年经济预测的调整——略微上调失业率预期并下调通胀目标，可能导致其鸽派倾向较此前声明更趋明显，”赛义德指出。这将是该行自2020年疫情暴发以来首次进入系统性的降息周期。

　　市场数据显示，隔夜指数掉期合约目前定价反映，交易员预计截至2025年底澳洲联储还将实施四次25个基点的降息操作。此次利率决议后的季度货币政策展望报告将成为评估政策路径的关键风向标。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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