荷兰国际集团（ING）最新分析指出，印度若减少对俄罗斯原油的采购量，尽管在寻找替代性中质含硫原油方面面临挑战，但欧佩克+联盟的预期增产将有效补充市场供应。数据显示，2023年前四个月印度每日进口约190万桶俄罗斯原油，占其总进口量的40%，但近两个月采购量已下降12%。

　　该机构大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森（Warren Patterson）表示：“炼油企业需要建立替代供应渠道以满足每日近200万桶的原油加工需求。”但他同时指出：“欧佩克+自九月起实施的渐进式增产计划，叠加第四季度全球原油市场预计每日超过150万桶的供应过剩量，将显著缓冲市场波动。”值得注意的是，沙特已将销往亚洲的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价连续三个月下调，创2021年以来最长调价周期。

　　监测数据显示，随着美国前总统特朗普威胁对俄油买家征收最高达30%的次级关税，布伦特-迪拜原油价差持续走阔，目前已跌至每桶-5.2美元的九年低位，这使得以迪拜油价定价的中东原油在性价比方面更具吸引力。能源情报集团（Energy Intelligence）追踪显示，近期阿联酋穆尔班原油和卡塔尔陆地原油对印度买家的贴水幅度已扩大至18个月新高。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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