大行评级|杰富瑞:下调小米目标价至69.85港元 智能手机需求疲弱或拖累第二季业绩

格隆汇
Aug 07

杰富瑞发表报告指,由于智能手机需求疲弱,小米第二季业绩可能逊预期,目标价由73港元下调至69.85港元,维持“买入”评级。报告指,第三方数据及行业调查显示,2025年第二季全球智能手机需求疲软,除美国市场出现部分提前需求。安卓设备库存高企,特别是在新兴市场如东南亚和印度。该行将2025年第二季小米智能手机收入预测下调约5%,毛利率预测下调0.5%至11.8%;由于对全球智能手机需求和竞争格局的更悲观看法,同时将智能手机的长期毛利率预测略微下调至12%以下。 不过,该行提到,小米电动车交付进展顺利,毛利率因产品组合改善而上升,维持第二季交付量为8.1万辆,毛利率将按季上升至23.9%,主要因SU7 Ultra车型交付占比提升。管理层近期表示,第二座电动车工厂尚未开始商业化生产,但一旦投入营运,将能迅速提升产能。投资者对中国汽车行业的情绪变得更为谨慎,因其他本地品牌新推出的车型需求低于预期。但SU7和YU7车型的等待时间依然较长,这使该行对其长期看涨预测充满信心。

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