申万宏源:8至10月或是债市颠簸期 中短端仍料表现稳健

金融界
Yesterday
申万宏源的报告称,中国8至10月的10年期国债利率运行区间可能在1.65%至1.80%,利率向下突破所需条件较为苛刻,但利率调整容易造成脉冲式冲击。固收分析师黄伟平等报告表示,8至10月份可能是债市颠簸期,中短端可能表现稳健,曲线相比当下可能陡峭化。节奏上看,8月压力或并不是很大,考虑到政府债券供给高峰,货币配合财政需保障流动性,若债券市场调整加剧,央行可能重启公开市场国债买卖。在防资金空转、防风险的底线思维下,流动性更可能是保持宽松而非进一步宽松。三、四季度之交可能是需要注意的风险窗口。政府债供给下降后,流动性对冲概率下降,同时迎来反内卷效果验证期,居民消费价格指数、工业生产者出厂价格或有回升风险。下半年或是债市赔率低、股市赔率高,由于居民存款搬家、保险资金流入股市;股市底部抬升,财富效应逐步显现;股市供给少、需求高债市对基本面、流动性定价弱化,对物价预期变动更敏感。

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