美银证券研究报告指出,回顾今年上半年中国生物技术与制药业的授权转让交易激增,中国企业的授权转让交易总额按年增135%至600亿美元。由于恒瑞医药在港交所公开上市,中国初级市场创新药物融资总额年增42.9%至33.3亿美元,融资事件数量略减6.7%(相较2024年年减22.3%)。美银认为,国内融资环境改善及授权转让交易上升趋势,可能逐步转化为对国内医药外包(CXO)服务的更高需求。 美银指,药明康德凭借其整合平台及强大营运效率,将继续抢占市场份额。该行上调药明康德长期收入预测,调整其2025至2032年每股盈余复合年增长率至16.2%;将其H股目标价从115.7港元上调至123港元,A股目标价从107.6元上调至114.4元,鉴于其稳健的订单增长及营运效率提升,重申“买入”评级。 美银将药明生物2025至2027年收入预测上调2%,以反映2025年上半年初步业绩及长期收入预测;目标价从29.6港元上调至35港元,但因其估值较高(2026年预估市盈率26.5倍,相较药明康德H股18倍),维持“中性”评级。
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