内银股午后走高晋商银行(02558)涨12.95% 机构建议关注银行板块轮动效应

金吾财讯

Aug 05

金吾财讯 | 内银股午后走高，截至发稿，晋商银行(02558)涨12.95%，盛京银行(02066)涨6.09%，江西银行(01916)涨4.29%，中信银行(00998)涨2.99%，天津银行(01578)涨2.90%，中原银行(01216)涨2.86%。消息面上，开源证券发布研报称，当前PB-ROE曲线斜率较前期平坦化，曲线拟合优度偏弱，背后逻辑在于估值驱动由前期基本面因子向股息逻辑切换。曲线的演变代表当前银行股估值仍以红利为基础，同时机构资金偏好、配置时点的差异性，亦推动行情在银行板块间轮动。此外建议从两个角度关注市场风险：一是基于DDM模型，该行测算当前隐含必要收益率约为5.2%，与无风险利率的利差约为3.5%，未来若利差水平缩窄，无风险利率降幅打开将推动银行PB估值进一步提升，反之则需关注风险;二是基于PB-ROE曲线平坦化的特征，关注高、低估值银行间PB差。此外，花旗发表研究报告指，内银第二季盈利压力较首季缓解，但盈利能力仍偏弱，部分银行或好过预期。花旗预期所覆盖的中资银行上半年收入按年跌幅收窄至0.1%，对比首季下跌1.3%，主要由于净息差(NIM)压缩幅度减小及交易收益压力缓解，估计上半年盈利有望实现按年持平，而首季同样下跌1.3%。该行预测所评级银行上半年平均NIM为1.54%，对比首季为1.57%。

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02558\">晋商银行</a>(02558)涨12.95%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02066\">盛京银行</a>(02066)涨6.09%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01916\">江西银行</a>(01916)涨4.29%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601998\">中信银行</a>(00998)涨2.99%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01578\">天津银行</a>(01578)涨2.90%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01216\">中原银行</a>(01216)涨2.86%。消息面上，开源证券发布研报称，当前PB-ROE曲线斜率较前期平坦化，曲线拟合优度偏弱，背后逻辑在于估值驱动由前期基本面因子向股息逻辑切换。曲线的演变代表当前银行股估值仍以红利为基础，同时机构资金偏好、配置时点的差异性，亦推动行情在银行板块间轮动。此外建议从两个角度关注市场风险：一是基于DDM模型，该行测算当前隐含必要收益率约为5.2%，与无风险利率的利差约为3.5%，未来若利差水平缩窄，无风险利率降幅打开将推动银行PB估值进一步提升，反之则需关注风险;二是基于PB-ROE曲线平坦化的特征，关注高、低估值银行间PB差。此外，花旗发表研究报告指，内银第二季盈利压力较首季缓解，但盈利能力仍偏弱，部分银行或好过预期。花旗预期所覆盖的中资银行上半年收入按年跌幅收窄至0.1%，对比首季下跌1.3%，主要由于净息差(NIM)压缩幅度减小及交易收益压力缓解，估计上半年盈利有望实现按年持平，而首季同样下跌1.3%。该行预测所评级银行上半年平均NIM为1.54%，对比首季为1.57%。</p></body></html>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01216\">中原银行</a>(01216)涨2.86%。消息面上，开源证券发布研报称，当前PB-ROE曲线斜率较前期平坦化，曲线拟合优度偏弱，背后逻辑在于估值驱动由前期基本面因子向股息逻辑切换。曲线的演变代表当前银行股估值仍以红利为基础，同时机构资金偏好、配置时点的差异性，亦推动行情在银行板块间轮动。此外建议从两个角度关注市场风险：一是基于DDM模型，该行测算当前隐含必要收益率约为5.2%，与无风险利率的利差约为3.5%，未来若利差水平缩窄，无风险利率降幅打开将推动银行PB估值进一步提升，反之则需关注风险;二是基于PB-ROE曲线平坦化的特征，关注高、低估值银行间PB差。此外，花旗发表研究报告指，内银第二季盈利压力较首季缓解，但盈利能力仍偏弱，部分银行或好过预期。花旗预期所覆盖的中资银行上半年收入按年跌幅收窄至0.1%，对比首季下跌1.3%，主要由于净息差(NIM)压缩幅度减小及交易收益压力缓解，估计上半年盈利有望实现按年持平，而首季同样下跌1.3%。该行预测所评级银行上半年平均NIM为1.54%，对比首季为1.57%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1231","symbol_name":"综合性银行","start_time":0,"source_url":"1963463","article_id":"2557842350","we_media_id":"1086022552","thumbnails":["https://static.szfiu.com/news/20241108/OTEzM2QyMzQzMjc2MzA3OTk2MA==.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2557842350","pubTimestamp":1754374152,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"金吾财讯","introduction":"「金吾财讯」以精准用户需求为切入点，打造一站式港美股投资细分领域品牌。依托战略合作伙伴凤凰网财经，将港美股内容传播到全球华人圈。","home_visible":1,"id":"1086022552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a93586c3b023ec6ebfed568990555c"},"summary":"金吾财讯 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