Odaily星球日报讯 Bitfinex 发布 Alpha 报告，其中指出宏观因素决定比特币价格，此次反弹，加上加密货币资金管理公司（目前持有近 900 亿美元的数字资产）的稳步增持，恢复了市场短期信心，推动比特币价格突破 119,500 美元附近的区间高点，但这种突破阻力位的势头能否持续仍有待观察。目前价格在短期持有成本基差 106,709 美元附近波动，市场行情“温和但尚未过热”，与中期牛市阶段相符。
金融市场经历了数月的平静之后，贸易政策的转变、债券市场动态的演变以及经济数据的疲软，为年底市场更加动荡奠定了基础。即将实施的美国关税可能会推高成本、扰乱供应链并给就业带来压力，而债券市场不断上升的期限溢价（目前为 0.65%）则预示着未来美联储政策的不确定性加剧，尤其是在关税措施实施后通胀加速的情况下。
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