AI泡沫何时破灭？美银Hartnett建议紧盯这个关键指标

华尔街见闻

Aug 11

在AI热潮的驱动下，美国股市正经历一场由少数科技巨头主导的强劲反弹，但关于其泡沫化的担忧也与日俱增。美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新的“Flow Show”报告中指出，判断当前AI泡沫是否正在破裂的核心信号，在于科技行业的信用利差变化。他认为，当前由AI驱动的牛市，其关键风险点并非来自高昂的股价，而是背后巨大的资本支出。只要科技债与国债之间的利差保持收窄或稳定，这轮...

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Bank of America Hartnett recommends keeping an eye on this key indicator","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FMS":1},"content_text":"在AI热潮的驱动下，美国股市正经历一场由少数科技巨头主导的强劲反弹，但关于其泡沫化的担忧也与日俱增。\n美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新的“Flow Show”报告中指出，判断当前AI泡沫是否正在破裂的核心信号，在于科技行业的信用利差变化。\n他认为，当前由AI驱动的牛市，其关键风险点并非来自高昂的股价，而是背后巨大的资本支出。只要科技债与国债之间的利差保持收窄或稳定，这轮美股行情就可能持续。\n然而，一旦利差开始扩大，将意味着市场开始担忧这些公司为维持AI领先地位而进行的巨额投资。他们巨大的“现金消耗”将让“过度建设”的模式变得难以为继。\n\n据摩根士丹利近期测算，到2028年，AI相关的资本支出将高达2.9万亿美元。\n\nHartnett的这一记警告为沉浸在AI狂热中的市场提供了明确的观察指标。他还将此与历史进行了类比。报告指出，1999年下半年“互联网泡沫时期”也出现了类似情况，当年正是科技公司信用利差的走阔，预示了随后的市场崩盘。\n双重风险：史上最集中的反弹与劳动力裂痕\n本轮反弹的脆弱性在其极端的市场集中度上暴露无遗。自4月份市场反弹以来，美股的收益高度集中在少数几家公司。\n数据显示，“科技七巨头”（Mag7）加上博通、甲骨文和Palantir这10家公司，贡献了标普500指数同期80%的回报。这种前所未有的集中度，放大了特定板块的风险。\n与此同时，AI对实体经济的影响已初步显现。报告引述数据称，美国大学毕业生的失业率已从2023年12月的4.0%飙升至8.1%，这可能预示着AI技术正在对劳动力市场产生颠覆性影响。\n\n零风险预期？三大反向指标敲响警钟\n尽管风险潜伏，但投资者情绪目前极度乐观。Hartnett的调查显示，60%的客户预期市场将处于“金发姑娘”状态（即利率下降，股市上涨），而预期出现通缩（即利率和股市双双下跌）的客户比例为零。\nHartnett认为，这种“零预期”本身就是一个值得警惕的反向（contrarian）信号。\n此外，他列举了三个来自基金经理调查（FMS）的潜在“卖出信号”，一旦触发，往往预示市场短期回调：\n\n\n投资者预期的经济“硬着陆”概率降至5%或以下。\n\n\n全球股票配置从净增持4%升至超过25%。\n\n\n投资者现金水平从3.9%进一步下降。报告特别指出，历史上现金水平低于3.7%的情况出现过20次，每一次都伴随着未来1-3个月内股市下跌、美债跑赢大盘。\n\n\n\n美银看好中国与黄金\n在对AI泡沫提出警告的同时，Hartnett也将目光投向了被华尔街主流所忽视的市场。报告明确指出，中国市场已成为其青睐的投资标的（“favorite play”）。\n他给出的理由是，中国市场目前具备多重优势：“被忽视、关税见顶、消费刺激、以及创纪录的贸易顺差”。这些因素共同构成了一个具备吸引力的投资逻辑。报告同时认为，随着地缘政治局势可能趋缓，日本和印度等石油进口国也将受益。\n此外，对于黄金，Hartnett依然维持长期看涨立场。他认为，在2020年代这个通胀十年中，地缘政治隔离、移民控制和国家干预等因素将支撑金价。更重要的是，持续的美元贬值以及市场对各国央行可能被迫重估黄金储备以减轻债务负担的预期，都为黄金构成了显著的长期利好。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}