金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，7月整体楼市步入传统淡季。根据克而瑞的初步数据，2025年7月全口径销售总额由6月3,707亿元(人民币，下同)环比下降38.1%至2,294亿元。该机构跟踪的20家主要上市开发商7月销售额环比下降40.2%，由于季节性因素，销售均价和销售面积分别环比下降21.4%/21.8%。近日中央政治局会议提出，“保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活预见性”，预计更多政策仍有加力空间，未来围绕城中村和危旧房改造、“好房子”建设、优化土地供给、强化金融支持等相关政策有望持续推进。根据国家统计局公布的70大中城市商品住宅价格指数，6月新建商品住宅价格指数同比/环比分别下跌3.7%/0.3%，二手商品住宅价格指数同比/环比分别下跌6.1%/0.6%。该机构预计二级市场的需求将持续改善并好于一级市场。新房市场将保持基本稳定，该机构认为买家将继续偏好国企项目。随着资本市场情绪好转，一些领先的民营企业可能会借机加速其债务重组进程。中长期该机构继续看好华润置地(01109买入)和越秀地产(00123/买入)，这两家公司在过去几年的销售表现优异，且在销售方面执行能力更强。
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