MW Gold and bitcoin are both vying to be safe havens for investors. Why gold is winning so far this year.

By Frances Yue

Tariff confusion gave gold to another record Friday

Gold futures scored another record high, extending their lead over bitcoin this year and reinforcing the precious metal's status as the go-to safe haven in uncertain times, despite some volatility on Friday.

While both assets have rallied in 2025 and repeatedly notched fresh highs, gold has pulled ahead, even after paring gains Friday afternoon. Gold futures (GC00) rose earlier in the day after the U.S. ruled that 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to tariffs, but trimmed gains after reports said the Trump administration planned to clarify that imported gold bars would be exempt.

Still, gold's edge this year may reflect a broader trend where elevated geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns give traditional risk-off assets like gold an extra edge over newer alternatives. Crypto bulls have long pitched bitcoin (BTCUSD) as "digital gold," arguing it could eventually play a similar role. But for now, analysts say gold's legacy as a crisis hedge is prevailing.

"Gold has certainly benefited from safe-haven flows more so than cryptocurrencies like bitcoin" this year, said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. He noted in a phone interview that bitcoin still tends to move in lockstep with risk assets, limiting its appeal during times of uncertainty.

In particular, gold has seen strong support from global central bank purchases, which have accelerated in response to geopolitical tensions, tariffs and other macroeconomic uncertainties this year, according to Konstantin Anissimov, chief executive at Currency.com.

"I think the overall theme is uncertainty. And when there is uncertainty, sovereigns flee to what they know best-an asset that has weathered the storms of millennia rather than just decades or centuries," Anissimov said in a phone interview.

In contrast with gold, no major government has adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset, though Anissimov sees strong long-term potential for it to serve as a store of value. President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March to establish a federal bitcoin reserve, though few details have emerged since. Anissimov also noted that corporations have been increasingly adding the cryptocurrency to their treasuries.

The most actively traded gold futures contract settled at a record high of $3,491.30 on Friday before pulling back to $3,451.60 in electronic trade. The contract is up 30.8% year to date, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Bitcoin slipped 0.7% on Friday to around $116,511, about 5.4% below its record high of $123,165.67 set on July 14. The cryptocurrency is up 24.6% year to date.

Both have outpaced U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 SPX up 8.6% in the year to date after ending Friday just a fraction shy of a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was up just 3.8% so far this year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP has rallied 11%, ending at a record Friday.

In exchange-traded funds, shares of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX gained 0.2% Friday, for a 71% yearly gain, while the popular SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD was unchanged on the session, but up 29% so far in 2025, according to FactSet.

What's next

From a technical standpoint, short-term momentum has turned negative for bitcoin, while it remains positive for gold, suggesting potential for further gains in the coming week, analysts at Currency Research Associates wrote in a report on Friday.

In the longer term, Peter Eberle, president and chief investment officer at Castle Funds, said he thinks bitcoin has more upside than gold as institutional adoption grows.

"The capital flows from institutions to bitcoin are only at the beginning. Between regulatory clarity and a friendlier administration, we are in the earliest phase of institutional adoption," Eberle wrote.

-Frances Yue

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August 08, 2025 16:51 ET (20:51 GMT)

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