金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，阅文集团(00772)2025上半年收入32亿元，基本符合彭博一致预期，同比-24%。扣除新丽后，经调整净利润5.5亿元，同比+36%，对应经调整净利率17%，符合预期。在线业务收入同比微增2%，其中付费用户同比增5%至920万。版权运营收入同比降46%，主要因新丽剧集上线延期及红果合作短剧净额法确认收入。IP衍生品延续高增长趋势，上半年GMV4.8亿元，接近2024年全年水平。展望未来，该机构维持在线业务全年收入持稳预期，预计版权运营业务收入同比降15%，其中阅文核心IP运营收入同比增4%，受益于IP衍生品业务品类扩张。该机构基本维持2025/26年非IFRS净利润预期，并将估值调整至2026年，考虑行业估值中枢上移，参考可比公司平均25倍市盈率，上调目标价至39港元（原为28港元）。公司维持行业领先的优质IP储备，AIGC赋能降本提效、加速中腰部IP短/漫剧可视化改编，潮玩产业链战略投资有望锁定部分产能，看好后续自有IP多元化产品开发及原创IP探索，促进商业化变现加速释放，看好阅文核心利润增长趋势，上调至买入评级。
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