东莞证券研报指出，贵州茅台2025年上半年实现归母净利润454.03亿元，同比增长8.89%，业绩稳健增长。二季度为白酒消费淡季，叠加政策端对政务用酒的约束强化，白酒需求承压。公司作为白酒行业龙头，渠道溢价能力较强，回款相对良性，上半年顺利完成任务。公司茅台酒稳扎稳打，直营与批发渠道协同发展。分产品看，禁酒令出台后，白酒消费场景减少，飞天批价走弱。在此背景下，公司积极调控飞天发货节奏，并加强1升飞天茅台的投放。系列酒方面，公司主动调整系列酒投放，系列酒二季度营收同比下滑。禁酒令发布后，作为白酒行业龙头，公司业绩仍实现稳健增长，彰显龙头韧性。维持对公司的“买入”评级。
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