华安证券研报指出，贵州茅台上半年归母净利润454.03亿元（+8.89%），Q2归母净利润185.55亿元（+5.25%）。分产品：25Q2茅台酒/系列酒营收分别同比+11.0%/-6.5%，茅台酒占比白酒营收同比提升2.6pct至82.6%。该行预计茅台酒中普飞保持稳健，公斤装与文创产品贡献主要增量；系列酒下滑主因茅台1935基数较高，叠加茅台1935取消计划外打款价。分渠道：25Q2直销/批发营收分别同比+16.5%/+1.5%，直销占比白酒营收同比提升3.4pct至43.3%，其中i茅台同比-0.3%。该行预计直销高增主因经销商公斤装、非标配额需向直营店打款所致。Q2环境激变下，公司仍保证H1营收+9%顺利实现，彰显公司经营韧性，预计全年达成目标无虞。H2展望看，产品端公司持续开发不同规格普飞、各类文创产品以挖掘消费场景；渠道端飞天批价已回稳1900元/瓶，叠加需求有望边际好转，渠道信心持续恢复。维持“买入”评级。
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